Jennifer and Keith Swiryn’s day begins with eggs — and lots of them. “We go through about 20 dozen each week,” says Keith. The owners of The Morning Fork have been serving breakfast and lunch in the former site of Lucky Cafe since 2019. “Breakfast is our thing,” says Jennifer. “I love the lightness and the happiness of it. People come in, everybody’s smiling, and we get their day started.”

But since the bird flu outbreak, egg prices have skyrocketed. “We haven’t experienced anything this scary since COVID,” she shares. “But we know we’ll be okay. We’re making the necessary changes and praying along.”

Once just a simple breakfast staple, eggs have become a loaded symbol of the economic hardship felt by consumers in recent years. As the ongoing bird flu crisis continues to decimate millions of infected chicken flocks across the country, and eggs become pricier and harder to find, Capital Region businesses weigh in on the impact of the shortage and what’s helping them through another major economic challenge so close on the heels of the pandemic.

Change on short order

Just this year the Swiryns were excited to make the move to using pasture-raised eggs. “But we had to retract that because of this situation,” says Keith. “Standard double A eggs for us are going for $140 for 15 dozen. I think it’s roughly 75 cents an egg. It used to be 20 or 25 cents.” That could mean an increase in prices. “We’re going to change our menu and adjust accordingly,” says Jennifer.

According to the USDA’s February 25 Food Price Outlook, prices are projected to rise nationally by another 41.1 percent, a significant jump from the previous month.

“Now we’re spending over $8,000 a month extra just on eggs,” Jennifer says. “Even these last few months, it’s been really hard.” They’re trying small changes — changing their waffle and pancake batter to forgo eggs, possibly looking into egg substitutes, and adding a few more vegan items to the menu — to get them over the hump. “We’ve noticed a lot more people asking for that style of food. So maybe that’s the way the world is going with situations like this.”

As things continue to evolve, they say, all they can do is deliver the best product they can and focus on the positives. “Life is give and take,” says Jennifer. “We have faith we’re going to get past this.”

Balancing supply and demand

Improving conditions for hens would definitely help things moving forward, says Alexandra Ball, grocery manager at the Sacramento Natural Foods Co-Op. “When they are kept in a confined space and not allowed to roam around and scratch and given sustainable feed, it really affects their health,” she explains. “Just like if you were to put a human in a small area for a long period of time, their health would decline naturally.”

About 42 percent of hens used for egg production in the U.S. are currently cage-free, but all types of flocks have been affected by bird flu. A Feb. 28 USDA report shows a loss of over 30 million birds in 2025.

At the Co-Op, the shelves in the egg aisle are sparse. “All of our egg suppliers are having issues,” she says. Even with local suppliers, they sometimes don’t see any eggs come in on a delivery at all.

“Basically, what I’ve heard from the supply chain side is that we are being allocated a certain amount, and those amounts are based on what we were purchasing previously,” explains Ball. “For example, some of our smaller distributors that are out of Sonoma County are only allotting eggs to those that have always ordered eggs from them.”

The store currently has a limit on the number of eggs per purchase, which on average run about $12 to $13 per dozen. The certified organic pasture-raised are going to be on the pricier side, says Ball. “But we consider eggs a basic food. So we’ve kept our margins as low as possible for them, which means that we’re able to still offer them at a lower price, even though they are certified more sustainable.”

In the meantime, sales on egg substitutes are on the rise. Plant-based alternative Just Egg, made by San Francisco based company Eat Just, recently celebrated selling the equivalent of 500 million eggs since launching in 2019.

Ball also notes that it’s not just eggs they’re seeing out of stock; it’s a variety of grocery items. “This does kind of go with the whole new normal thing,” she says. “You just kind of gotta roll with the punches.”

A plan to move forward

Nate Rose from the California Grocers Association discusses the impact of Prop. 12 on the market: “In California, we sometimes think we’re a big enough market that if we do this, we will shift the habits of the entire country,” he says. “But the reality is, sometimes what we actually do is create a smaller pool from which to buy things from. Now I think we’re up to the highest cost per dozen eggs at the wholesale level, so when you visit a store, it does have a real impact on consumers.”

Bird flu has been an issue since 2022, says Rose. “I think I saw a number — there’s been 166 million hens culled since then.” Stores may end up juggling producers as one strong supply source is impacted by bird flu and must work quickly to cull the hens “within 24 to 48 hours,” says Rose. “So they have to be very agile in terms of tracking down other supplies.”

Recently, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins rolled out the Trump administration’s $1 billion five-point plan to address avian flu that focuses on improving biosecurity on farms, vaccine research, financial assistance for farmers, removing “unnecessary regulatory burdens” on egg producers, and temporary import options. In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Rollins expressed confidence the market will become stable again in three to six months.

In the meantime, Capital Region businesses and consumers continue to adapt amid a new normal of ever-changing conditions. “One silver lining is that since the pandemic, grocers have become experts when it comes to supply chain issues and things like that,” says Rose. “And consumers seem to have a better understanding of these intricacies, which I think is useful, as we become more adept at navigating these issues and they feel more like a fact of life.”

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